From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”